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Federal Election 2007

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Federal Election 2007

Post by shammy on Tue Nov 20, 2007 10:18 am

19/11/2007

Reporter: Michael Brissenden
ABC 7.30 Report

Leaders gear up for final campaign week

It's been a hectic day for the nation's political leaders as Saturday's poll approaches. The Prime Minister delivered a major speech in Perth while Kevin Rudd kept the focus firmly on his education and training policies.

KERRY O'BRIEN: Welcome to the program. As we enter the final week of a marathon election campaign, with Labor urging us to believe it will still be an uphill struggle to win the required 16 seats despite the consistent evidence of opinion polls, and the Coalition still expressing the hope that it can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Both claims will be tested over the next few days, and we'll be doing our own testing tomorrow and Wednesday nights, when we devote the program to interviews with the Prime Minister, John Howard, and the Opposition Leader, Kevin Rudd. On Thursday, we'll return to sniff the winds in the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro in regional New South Wales, which has gone with Government at every election for 35 years. Tonight, we're also going to look at two liberal seats in South Australia, both requiring swings of more than 5 per cent, both under threat.

But first the day's swirls and eddies, with political editor Michael Brissenden.

MICHAEL BRISSENDEN: The last week is all about momentum: who has it and who doesn't. As campaign metaphors go, this is perhaps one of the more obvious. The polls show Labor still in front, but have the wheels come off the Government? It's often said the voters aren't waiting for John Howard with baseball bats in the same way they did for Paul Keating in 1996, but the 2007 descriptor of choice is more like the family car. They may not hate the old one but it seems the majority do think it's time for a new model.

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2095152.htm


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shammy

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Re: Federal Election 2007

Post by shammy on Thu Nov 22, 2007 2:15 pm

22/11/2007

ABC 7.30 Report
Analysts reflect on the final campaign week

ABC veteran election analyst Antony Green and The Australian’s polling consultant, Sol Lebovic, reflect on the final campaign week and look ahead to Election Day.

KERRY O'BRIEN: Apart from tomorrow's Galaxy and Neilsen polls, confusing as they are, Newspoll in Saturday's 'Australian' will offer one final measure of public opinion before voters hit the polling booths. Whatever they decide watching that decision unfold is going to be fascinating.

And for their last say of the campaign, I spoke earlier tonight with former Newspoll chairman, now the 'Australian's' polling consultant Sol Lebovic and the ABC's election analyst, Antony Green.

Sol Lebovic, at the start of the campaign, you were very cautious about placing great trust in the polls throughout the year, even though the trend has been very consistent, because of the significant number of voters who tend to make up their minds at the last moment. But you did say at the start of the campaign that if the polls hadn't shifted by the start of the last week of the campaign, the Government was in trouble. So, is the Government in trouble?

SOL LBEOVIC: Well, I think the Government definitely are in trouble. We do know from previous elections that about one in four voters finally decide in that final week, about one in ten say they decide on election day. So there will be people reassessing this week. But it hasn't been a good week for the Government. So in that reassessment I think the Government's going to struggle and the lead that the Government's got is quite substantial.

KERRY O'BRIEN: The lead that Labor's got?

SOL LBEOVIC: The lead that Labor's got is quite substantial going into this week. The other thing that's of note is when an Opposition, in fact, has comfortably led and there's been a big swing since the previous election, what we have seen in the final week of a campaign, we saw it in '93, '96, that 2.5 per cent comes off the primary vote in the final week as people reassess. But in this particular case 2.5 per cent off the primary vote for the Government probably won't be enough.

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2098086.htm
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Re: Federal Election 2007

Post by shammy on Sat Nov 24, 2007 2:08 am

24/11/07

Howard, Rudd poised for cliffhanger

Today's federal election will show whether Prime Minister John Howard's strategy to fight the election on economic terms has paid off, or whether Australians will decide to go with the new leadership team of Labor and Kevin Rudd.

More than 13.5 million voters are heading to polling booths, in what the latest poll suggests will be a cliffhanger.

After months of polls showing a Labor landslide victory, the latest poll in The Australian newspaper shows the ALP and the Coalition virtually neck and neck.

Newspoll has put Labor on 44 per cent in the primary vote, to the Coalition's 43.

But the two-party-preferred vote shows a slightly bigger gap, with Labor at 52 per cent against the Coalition's 48.

The message that the economy is central has resonated through Mr Howard's six-week bid for re-election.

But an interest rate rise midway through the campaign forced the Coalition to alter its message, focusing on their leadership credentials and experience.

"We've got the men and women to deliver the best years yet for this nation," Mr Howard said.

On his extensive campaign trail, Mr Rudd has been mobbed by crowds of teenagers, and has courted the youth vote with appearances on FM radio.

The central theme of Labor's campaign has been that it is time for new leadership.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/24/2099988.htm
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